Topic

July 14, 15:54 Source: APK-Inform Views: 2658

Harvesting campaign-2018 in Ukraine — forecasts

To date, the Ukrainian agrarian market focused on the results of the first stage of the harvesting campaign-2018. Surely, in future days the estimations of the harvested volumes or crop qualitative features will vary only, but the market already been fixed a number of problems. In particular, there is a good issue of the qualitative characteristics of winter grains, as well as yield figures of other crops.

According to agrarians, the adverse weather conditions in the spring 2018 had a negative impact on both winter crops and early spring plants. The absence of sufficient precipitations led to a partial deficit of moisture content in the soil. At the same time, the driest weather with severe changes in temperature impacted crop areas in southern and south-eastern oblasts.

 

Forecasts of the harvest-2018

 

Winter wheat

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19*

Planted areas, `000 ha

6 013

6 168

6 279

Yield, t/ha

4,22

4,12

3,8

Production, `000 tonnes

25 321

25 398

23 436

* Hereinafter, there are presented estimations and forecasts of APK-Inform Agency

       

Winter barley

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19*

Planted areas, `000 ha

1 006

887

813

Yield, t/ha

3,62

3,44

3,3

Production, `000 tonnes

3 638

3 041

2 614

       

Peas

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19*

Planted areas, `000 ha

240

416

415

Yield, t/ha

3,13

2,65

2,3

Production, `000 tonnes

746

1 098

927

       

Winter rapeseed

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19*

Planted areas, `000 ha

655

899

1 010

Yield, t/ha

2,65

2,83

2,78

Production, `000 tonnes

1 085

2 094

2 504

 

Yield figures

In terms of the abovementioned agro-climatic conditions, in 2018 Ukrainian agrarians started the harvesting campaign in sufficiently early date. Since the end of the first ten-day period of June, agrarians informed APK-Inform experts about the first harvesting results. Agrarians of Kherson oblast were almost the first ones who started harvesting crops. On the one hand, the weather favoured for providing of active field works, but the yield figures were not so positive to agrarians.

"In the current year, we had to start the harvesting campaign of winter grains in one week earlier compared with the planned terms, due to early afterripening of crops. The situation developed in terms of the almost complete absence of precipitation in the spring, as well as high air temperatures during in the period of grain formation and filling. To date, it is quite difficult to make any conclusions about the quality indicators of new crop grains, since the harvesting campaign is still ongoing. We plan to make the laboratory analysis in the nearest days. To date, we already harvested winter crops throughout 30% of the planted areas, but it is already clear that the harvest of wheat and barley will become lower compared with last year. At the same time, in the first stage of the harvesting campaign the average yield of winter wheat totaled 2.5-3.2 t/ha, and winter barley — 2.6-3.3 t/ha," commented agrarian from Kherson oblast.

Generally, in the south of Ukraine the average yield of winter barley usually varied within 2.5-4 t/ha, winter wheat — 2.4-4 t/ha, and winter rapeseed — 1.6-2.2 t/ha. Therefore, the yield figures of winter crops decreased by nearly 15-25% compared with the level in 2017. At the same time, the lowest yield figures were recorded in Zaporizhia oblast, and the highest ones — in Odessa oblast.

As for early spring crops, it should be noted that the yield of peas in the southern part of the country reduced by nearly 10-20% compared with the last year level. Many agrarians of Zaporizhia oblast informed that in 2018 the yield declined by almost 50%, and varied within 0.9-1.4 t/ha.

 

Quality

Poor quantity of rainfalls in the period of crops vegetation resulted in insufficient formation of grains and pulses. In the first batches of harvested wheat and barley, the kernel is often shrinked and imperfect. Mainly agrarians from the southern region, as well as Dnipropetrovsk oblast, informed about the issue.

"The first harvesting results of winter wheat in our fields showed reduction of the yield by 0.3-0.5 t/ha compared with 2017. In addition to the low harvest volumes, the qualitative indicators also are far from great, because the grain is shrinked. I suppose that in the current year, the share of feed wheat will be high enough. Also, in terms of the current situation with the production volumes and quality characteristics, the bid prices also somewhat disappoint. The current declared prices are rather low, and we are not ready to seed feed wheat at the proposed price of 5`200 UAH/t CPT," told grain producer from Mykolaiv oblast.

At the same time, the harvesting campaign in the country just started its active stage, and therefore the main volumes are still in the fields. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of July 13 agrarians harvested 13 mln tonnes of early grains and pulses (without winter rapeseed) throughout 4.3 mln ha. The average yield totaled 3.06 t/ha.

As for the current condition of late spring crops, it should be noted that the optimum development of crops (corn, sunflower seed, soybeans) requires additional precipitations. Rains in the last days of June slightly improved the condition of crops, but the harvest volumes and quality will depend on the weather conditions in the period of flowering and seed formation.

 

Alexandrina Ovdienko, Anna Kochuhova, APK-Inform Agency

Comments

You should be authorized to post comment

Topic articles